I don't think it's nearly so clear -- Gabrieli is doing quite well at this point, and I think he's got the momentum. Patrick has the liberal grass-roots, but Gabrieli is more appealing to centrists like myself. (Frankly, Gabrieli is *saying* a lot more than Patrick, and I appreciate that.) And I believe it's naive to count Reilly out: while I believe he's made a possibly-fatal mistake, he's a smart old hand with a lot of machine pull.

This is still very much a three-way race, tight enough that little things could yet swing it in any direction...