And then there were two-and-a-half

[jducoeur]

Not really a surprise: McCain and Romney split Florida, with Giuliani in third. Pretty much what I expected, but I believe it means that Giuliani is toast: he staked everything he had on winning it. I'll be surprised if he stays in the race at this point. So I think that leaves the Republicans with three candidates who have any credibility, maybe really only two: still too many, but gradually weeding...

Comments

[liamstliam.livejournal.com]

I think he stays in for a week.

He will do better in New York. I know he will get at least one vote.

[rickthefightguy.livejournal.com]

Its not the number of votes. I suspect he got more votes in Florida than McCain and Romney combined got in NH and Iowa. Its the relative number...

[jducoeur]

Yeah. More importantly, it's about credibility. He took a huge gamble, and basically lost outright, because he failed to understand that the thing about Iowa and NH isn't the delegates themselves, it's the street cred they confer. So instead of going into Florida as the presumed front-runner that he was three months ago, he went in as an also-ran, and that wrecked him.

And now, he's toast. He staked what credibility he had on Florida: he *had* to win that (or at least come in a strong second) to rebuild his cred. Without that, I expect far too many people to regard voting for him as a wasted vote, and instead focus on the 2.5 candidates who have a chance. If he gets 10% on Super Tuesday I'll be surprised. (Although at this point, I suppose he may as well stay in until then.)

I have to say, though, I'm amazed that both races are still so tight. Both parties still have two candidates seriously duking it out, plus one spoiler. Very exciting (and, given how much I despise Romney, a bit scary)...

[rickthefightguy.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I am probably going to ask for a Republican ballot in the primary next week.