And then there were two-and-a-half

[jducoeur]

Not really a surprise: McCain and Romney split Florida, with Giuliani in third. Pretty much what I expected, but I believe it means that Giuliani is toast: he staked everything he had on winning it. I'll be surprised if he stays in the race at this point. So I think that leaves the Republicans with three candidates who have any credibility, maybe really only two: still too many, but gradually weeding...

Comments

[hungrytiger]

No surprise about Giuliani, but Edwards dropping out today did shock me. I figured him to wait until Super Tuesday, in which he would have been likely to secure a bunch more delegates, and then drop out to wait for the convention and a role in whatever brokering goes on there if Clinton or Obama can't lock it up.

Of course, since Edwards has been playing himself up as the one "grown-up" in the Democratic debates, then dropping out can be viewed as the "grown-up" thing for him to do, given the reality of the status of his campaign. Plus, it better positions him to once again be considered a potential running-mate (though I doubt that that would happen - certainly not with Clinton and I don't think he adds much of anything to an Obama ticket)

[jducoeur]

Oh, I don't know: Obama/Edwards makes some sense from a political POV, if not necessarily from a policy one. Edwards is well-understood to be much more populist than Obama -- he's the one Democrat who campaigned on a distinctly left platform, whereas Clinton is focusing on centrism and Obama is mainly trying to stay away from the left/right scale altogether. So Edwards might shore up the left side of the Democrats if that were desired. (Although it could also scare off some Republicans, so there is a potentially serious cost there.)

And he's a southerner, which doesn't hurt. Between that and general dissatisfaction with the Republicans, it might put some of the South into play -- and if the Democrats take any significant fraction of the Deep South, this could go from being a win to a wipeout.

So I think it's possible. Whether it's *likely*, I have no idea -- most importantly, I have no clue how the two feel about each other or what the chemistry would be like, and that matters a lot...

[querldox.livejournal.com]

Edwards makes zero sense as an Obama running mate. Obama's key campaign weak points, especially against McCain, are lack of experience and particularly lack of foreign experience (there's a side order of never having run a government, but that'll be what Romney will use, not McCain).

Edwards has the rest of an undistinguished Senate term over Obama in experience, nothing on the foreign side, and could not carry his state in '04 (and probably would've lost if he'd run for Senate re-election then). Edwards wasn't a particularly good Veep candidate in '04; in addition to not picking up NC, he didn't do well against Chaney in the debate. The people who'd vote for Edwards aren't voting for either McCain or Romney, so he adds zilch to a ticket.

If Obama wants to roll the dice with a second minority, I'd think Richardson compliments him well in terms of covering his weaknesses. Another possibility might be a former military type, although probably only Powell or maybe Clark come across as significant with respect to McCain's military record.

[hungrytiger]

I agree about the chemistry, that's somewhat unknowable to us.

I think the race issue brings the south into play all by itself, look at the turnout for the SC democratic primary as an example.

I doubt that the Obama camp is that worried about the left side of the Democratic party. If Obama's the candidate, it's unlikely that they'll jump over the the Republicans.

It's my guess that Obama would be more likely to pick someone with a lot of foreign policy or economic expertise to counter the complaints about his inexperience. Edwards wouldn't really add much for him in that regard.

[jducoeur]

Fair enough -- certainly there are stronger and more useful running mates he could go with. I suspect that, if he comes strong out of Super Tuesday, all sorts of speculation in that regard will start in earnest...