Oh, yeah -- that's going to hurt McCain

[jducoeur]

I had suspected it, but this poll from CNN confirms it -- most people think that the Iraq War is part of why the economy is tanking.

Regardless of whether it's true (I happen to think it is, but I'm sure it will be argued), it's a very potent weapon for the eventual Democratic nominee. An argument that boils down to "Your War is why Americans are losing their jobs" is wildly over-simplistic, but likely to hit home quite effectively. McCain has put his entire reputation on the war, and while he may be able to sway people on the moral argument, I suspect that winning the pragmatic one is going to be a lot harder. The more people think about this link, and see McCain's justifications for the War, the crankier they're likely to get. Even Clinton can argue that she's been trying to disengage for a good while now, and that that might have spared the country the worst of the economic impact.

(Of course, this assumes that the economy is still in recession in November. I suspect that it will at least be perceived that way, even if a turnaround has started by then -- it takes time to shift the public perception, and I don't expect this particular setback to be either mild or quick...)

Comments

[onebuckfilms.livejournal.com]

Actually, the economic downturn is more due to junk mortgages and loans sold to people who cannot afford to pay them.

They went down, so the loan sharks no longer had the income they were banking on, and financial institutions build on artificial money via Interest imploded.

Government spending is inflated, and if that gets back to my taxes, it means money is going to the tax man rather than the economy, and the economy would be in even worse shape.

It might help or hinder McCain, but spending related to the war, as massive as it is, is probably miniscule next to overall spending of the nation.

Of course, Chrystler and other companies shutting down and manufacturing operations moving overseas doesn't help either.

Nobody paid, nobody to spend, no fuel for the economy.

[its-just-me.livejournal.com]

With all due respect, and keep in mind that I whole heartedly agree, if you take a poll from Fox news and such you will probably have results skewed the other way.

No doubt about it

[metageek.livejournal.com]

most people think that the Iraq War is part of why the economy is tanking.

I don't think there can be any doubt it's part of the problem. The only room for argument is over how much of the problem it is. The war roughly doubled the price of gas, after all. Also, by driving up the public debt, it reduced foreign confidence in the dollar, which has driven down the value of the dollar and driven up the price of imported goods.

Oh, and the war, and Bush's menacing stance toward Iran, inspired Iran to start selling oil in euros, which further weakens the dollar.

[laurion]

From what I can tell, the Dem voices are already starting to use this. Both Obama and Clinton have more than hinted that they'll be looking to shutdown some or all of the war spending and use that 'savings' to fund their other initiatives. I think that argument will win votes, but it won't hold out in the long run. Extricating from a conflict, and maintaining some level of diplomatic efforts and humanitarian aid, is likely to cost more than anyone wants to admit.