While I mostly agree that the Palin choice has been a net loss for McCain, there is a counter I'd like to mention. I've spoken with some religious Republicans I know who feel that both candidates suck. If not for the choice of Palin as VP (an obvious bone to the religious right), the people I've spoken with would probably stay home on Tuesday and not vote for anyone. If the Right became apathetic about which candidate won, it could have killed McCain's slim chances of winning some of the swing states.
A minor defense of the Palin choice