If the current cooling blip is of the same duration and magnitude as all the other variations, it does not impact the case in general.

The thing that makes this notion incorrect is that you don't know that the current case has the same duration and magnitude as the other cases - you only know whether it has that so far. One of the important bits about Bayes Theorem is to get some tools to help figure out the probability that new data weakens or strengthens the probability that the current model is correct.