First: I think that the game will be sewn up before the convention begins. There are tons of super-delegates, and many more that are not bound in the first vote. I doubt very much that the convention vote will go past one round.
And I agree with oswalrus, except that there are 3 states that will be interesting - South Carolina only has half the proper delegate count, while FL and MI have zero. I was in FL this weekend, and I talked politics with some Democrats. They are frigging steamed that their votes don't count, and are blaming anyone except their state committee.
Hilary is, of course, angling to "now count" those delgates she otherwise could not get. She is a fool to do so in such a naked manner. The ONLY thing that can lose the Democrat's the coming election (other than some nasty surprise) is if the party fights itself to death. Winning the convention WITH those "tainted delegates" is a kiss of death, and there will be blood on the convention floor.
Hilary would be smart, very smart, to stop now and say "We can't count them in the first round, unless they re-schedule a primary, but they can vote in any subsequent rounds". She might still win (I give good odds, although I'd rather she didn't) and if so: it's one party, minus some very angry FL, MI and SC Democrats (of which, FL is the big one that really matters.) If she gets them in, win or lose, the party is wounded going into November.
(Look for a lot of this text to recycle into a post of my own. I've been thinking about this for a while...)
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Date: 2008-02-06 04:47 pm (UTC)First: I think that the game will be sewn up before the convention begins. There are tons of super-delegates, and many more that are not bound in the first vote. I doubt very much that the convention vote will go past one round.
And I agree with
Hilary is, of course, angling to "now count" those delgates she otherwise could not get. She is a fool to do so in such a naked manner. The ONLY thing that can lose the Democrat's the coming election (other than some nasty surprise) is if the party fights itself to death. Winning the convention WITH those "tainted delegates" is a kiss of death, and there will be blood on the convention floor.
Hilary would be smart, very smart, to stop now and say "We can't count them in the first round, unless they re-schedule a primary, but they can vote in any subsequent rounds". She might still win (I give good odds, although I'd rather she didn't) and if so: it's one party, minus some very angry FL, MI and SC Democrats (of which, FL is the big one that really matters.) If she gets them in, win or lose, the party is wounded going into November.
(Look for a lot of this text to recycle into a post of my own. I've been thinking about this for a while...)