True, but remember that the effects are non-linear. If demand is relatively inelastic (as energy demand seems to be), then as soon as demand outstrips supply prices go *way* up. 10% can be a lot in such a system, if it causes the demand/supply curves to cross. (Think of it like system load -- 10% can be the difference between running smoothly and thrashing to death. Iraq's oil could be the thing that caused it to hit the elbow.)
To be fair, it isn't the biggest reason -- China's voracious consumption is probably biggest, and the return of OPEC's nerve as a cartel is probably next. But the war probably has done much to stiffen OPEC's spine, so even there it's had a negative impact...
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Re: No doubt about it
Date: 2008-03-20 10:46 pm (UTC)To be fair, it isn't the biggest reason -- China's voracious consumption is probably biggest, and the return of OPEC's nerve as a cartel is probably next. But the war probably has done much to stiffen OPEC's spine, so even there it's had a negative impact...