My main concern about Chavez is that, as far as I can tell, he's got an even stronger messianic streak than Putin. That is, Putin appears to think of himself as a strong father-figure to his country, but Chavez is showing every sign of thinking of himself as a saviour. And he's less subtle about it. Putin stayed in power, but also stayed within the rules, engaging in a little rules-hacking to pull it off; Chavez is simply changing the rules to his benefit.
So I do worry that Chavez may be even more dangerous (to his own country) in the long run: a lot of the worst tyrants have the "paved with good intentions" origin. I think Putin knows *exactly* what he is, good and bad, and is ruthlessly pragmatic; Chavez really believes in himself as the good guy, and that often means that *anything* can be justified on the grounds of "the good of the people". We'll see where that goes.
Regardless, though, you're correct that the populace are the real victims here. The economic wreckage is likely to be dire, if oil prices stay low for very long, since they haven't done enough to diversify the economy yet. And sadly, I think it's unlikely that the US is going to help much -- despite Chavez' smart PR moves using cheap oil, people are going to remember his anti-US rhetoric more clearly. I just hope that they get through the mess without too much horror, and get the clue that the best use of oil wealth is to build an economy that *isn't* dependent on it. (As the smarter Gulf states have been doing...)
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Date: 2009-02-23 03:33 pm (UTC)So I do worry that Chavez may be even more dangerous (to his own country) in the long run: a lot of the worst tyrants have the "paved with good intentions" origin. I think Putin knows *exactly* what he is, good and bad, and is ruthlessly pragmatic; Chavez really believes in himself as the good guy, and that often means that *anything* can be justified on the grounds of "the good of the people". We'll see where that goes.
Regardless, though, you're correct that the populace are the real victims here. The economic wreckage is likely to be dire, if oil prices stay low for very long, since they haven't done enough to diversify the economy yet. And sadly, I think it's unlikely that the US is going to help much -- despite Chavez' smart PR moves using cheap oil, people are going to remember his anti-US rhetoric more clearly. I just hope that they get through the mess without too much horror, and get the clue that the best use of oil wealth is to build an economy that *isn't* dependent on it. (As the smarter Gulf states have been doing...)