Shift in the wind

[jducoeur]

So I've just been watching a few minutes of Meet the Press this morning: it's James Carville sitting next to Mary Matlin and a few other Republican strategists. I had assumed that it would be everyone piling on Carville, but no -- it was actually everyone piling on Matlin instead, and *that* may be a really interesting sign of the times.

The topic is John McCain (the polls are now showing that he's increasingly likely to win big on Tuesday), and the argument may well be the best encapsulation of the current Republican party, because it's basically Matlin -- representing the now-traditional ideological side of the Republican party -- against several pragmatists. She was clearly pissed-off at the way the election is playing out, because McCain is probably going to win the primary without needing to appeal to the conservative base all that hard: instead, Huckabee and Romney have split much of the hardcore conservatives, allowing McCain to win with the more moderate chunk of the party. He's winning despite the fact that the loudmouth kingmakers in the party have all vocally opposed him.

The other Republican commentators on the show, OTOH, were fairly sanguine and pragmatic about the whole thing, making the point that McCain is the one candidate who has a chance in the general election, and that the loudmouths will suck it up and fall in behind him when the time comes. *They* look frankly kind of gleeful at the prospect of the kingmakers not calling the shots this time.

And I wonder if that's really what this election is going to be about for the Republicans: the fall of those behind-the-scenes demogogues as the Powers That Be, in favor of more old-fashioned practical politics. It's telling that this is all swirling around McCain, who *is* a conversative in every important respect, just not a party-line fanatic. If he wins the primary, it's going to be nail in the coffin of the conservative litmus tests; if he wins the election, it'll probably seal that coffin, and be a fine humiliation for the kingmakers.

I still don't want McCain to win, mind -- he *is* way too conservative for my tastes. But if he pulls the Republican party a step or two away from fanatacism, that'll be a genuine positive effect...

Comments

[mr-teem.livejournal.com]

I would call it more resigned than sanguine. For several months, even before Thompson made his lackadaisical attempt, analysts (and myself) were looking at the field and seeing McCain come out of it, with the only possibility being a Romney breakout. (Huckabee blunted that but, really, it's his own mouth that's doing it.) Beyond those three you've got the immigrant haters and the quirky Dr. Paul, none of whom can (could) support a majority interest among the Republican base or those voting in Republican contests. If that

(And, although it's not directly on topic to your post, the numbers voting Democratic are frickin' huge and blowing away the Republicans. I was reading somewhere that the number of GOP ME caucus voters may not have exceeded the number of absentee voters in the Democratic caucus (that occurs later this month). Numbers for previous contests show similar patterns.)

All of the would-be kingmakers and pundits are looking at Senator McCain the best of an empty barrel. Of those who are stepping forward, that is. I'm willing to believe that there are Republicans who are staying far, far away from this year's contest.

[driftingfocus.livejournal.com]

Hey there. I found you somewhat randomly, and you seem really interesting. Mind if I friend you? If you want to get a better idea of me, just check out my profile - it's pretty extensive.

[jducoeur]

Sure, and welcome! And feel free to ask questions about the various stuff I'm talking about -- while the SCA and LARP are tangentially related to re-enactment, they're different enough that I suspect some bits are going to be unobvious...

[driftingfocus.livejournal.com]

Oh, yes, I'm full aware of what the SCA is. My SO was in it for 6 years, and has thought about rejoining recently.

[driftingfocus.livejournal.com]

By the way, I've added you, and so now you should be able to see my entries. You could see some before, but I assure you, it was a small selection, so it's worth it to go take a new look at my journal.

[rickthefightguy.livejournal.com]

Y'know Justin, I might well pull a Republican ballot tomorrow myself so I can vote for McCain. I prefer Obama to Clinton, but frankly would be happy with either. But a McCain v. Either election would be something I haven't seen in a long time: a contest between 2 candidates who I could live with either of. Not a debate about ignorance and fear but rather about whose theoretical basis of civic government is more likely to generate the greatest societal good.

In an almost unrelated note, that Coke commercial yesterday reminded me of that awesome Epic Fantasy TV series, West Wing. Imagine a world where...

[jducoeur]

I might well pull a Republican ballot tomorrow myself so I can vote for McCain.

I can certainly understand that -- while I have big differences with him, I think he's head and shoulders better than Romney. McCain seems to be a fairly sincere and thoughtful conservative, which is a real change of pace at this point. I'm willing to cut him a bit of slack for falling prey to the conventional wisdom and actively pandering for a while, but he seems to have gotten over that, and it's reassuring that he's winning anyway.

I do actually care enough about the Democratic race that I'll probably vote on that side (I *really* like Obama's style), but I've certainly considered the notion of casting an anti-Romney ballot instead. Really, part of my decision is that I don't think the Republican race is so tight any more: I give McCain better than 75% odds to win, whereas the Democratic race is a real toss-up...