Life in the reality warp...

[jducoeur]

I seem to be the only person I know who actually rather likes the choice of Biden as VP nominee. It's smart on a lot of levels, adding someone who I think provides good balance to the ticket, and even more importantly balance to the potential Administration. No, it's not the choice that the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party would have chosen -- which is exactly why I approve, and exactly why it was smart. Yes, he's a Washington insider -- *someone* had damned well better be, if they want to get things done. I may want refom, but it's only going to happen if they know how to work the system, very effectively; otherwise, they'll just get steamrollered by the entrenched interests.

And frankly, this afternoon's speeches were fun to watch. Biden definitely isn't the beautiful speech-maker that Obama is (he certainly lived up to his reputation there), but he had fire and spirit and the willingness to be politely ruthless that is absolutely needed if they're going to win in November. It was what I wanted to hear; moreover, it was what I *expected* to hear. Everyone's been fretting about "Oh, my god -- McCain is catching up in the polls!" Of *course* he was -- he's gone on the hard offensive, while the Obama campaign played rope-a-dope for a while. I think that ended today, with a Biden speech that was uncompromising, full of delicious sound-bites, and frankly made some damned good points.

One thing that only occurred to me today: the Democrats have just hurt Romney's chances of getting the VP nod. Their message was substantially focused on painting McCain as rich and out-of-touch, contrasting with two Democrats who come from much less exalted circumstances. Romney would just make that contrast worse -- not just two white guys, but two very *rich* white guys. The Democrats would be all over that, and I have to expect that the Republicans know that it's a danger...

Comments

[jducoeur]

Oh, absolutely, but a scandal would destroy pretty much anybody, so I don't tend to worry about that. "Balancinator" would be, frankly, a perfectly fine image to wind up with -- the center of the country (which is really where the election will hang) is deeply sick of partisan bickering, so if Biden comes across as basically a down-to-earth centrist technocrat, that will appeal to a lot of people. (Including myself.) Indeed, I don't think the two aspects are entirely in tension: the up-by-the-bootstraps story is one that resonates very deeply with middle America, and Biden can tell that story nicely -- they're painting him as Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, essentially. Yes, Obama was already telling that story, but Obama is a little weird to Middle America, whereas Biden frankly *looks* like someone they can relate to.

So in general -- yeah, I really do think that the positives from Biden will be significantly greater than the negatives. I'd worry more if we were looking at a credible third-party threat from the left that might seriously split the party, but I'm really not seeing that this time. Indeed, this time around it's the Republicans who are desperately scared of a split -- if Barr really does poll 7% in some states, as a few polls have indicated, it could really Nader them.

Biden will be resented by the passionate left because he's safe, but he's not *so* much a company man as to entirely counteract Obama -- Obama/Biden is still the most progressive ticket since at least Mondale/Ferraro, and looks a lot better-grounded in reality. Yeah, some of the extreme left who took Obama for a messiah will be disillusioned, but reality was going to punch them in the face pretty soon anyway: they're looking for a revolution, and Obama is not (and really hasn't claimed to be) a revolutionary. He's mostly about smart, steady incremental improvement, and if he's going to carry the center he has to be clear about that.

So the question for the hard left becomes: do you make the best the enemy of the good? They've done so frequently in the past, but I think the hunger to end the Republican horror show is deep enough this time to mostly keep things together. And I think that at least the sensible progressives will recognize that it's better for them to support a moderate progressive like Obama, rather than continue to cut off their noses to spite their face...