What will this month be called?

[jducoeur]

A light question about a serious topic: when the historians write about the roller-coaster ride we're in the middle of, what will they call it?

I mean, every important historical event gets a catchy name, from "Watergate" to "9/11" to "Black Monday". It's clear to me that this September is one that they'll be talking about for decades to come, which means that they *will* settle on a common name for it eventually. How long it takes for such a name to arise ranges from days to years, but there's no time like the present.

So here's your chance to influence the history books. What would *you* call this mess?

Fine print: Winner will be selected by consensus of historians in 20 years. It is not guaranteed that any entrant will win. Chances of winning are directly proportional to relevance and pithiness of name, but it is entirely possible that these will not matter. Bad puns do not guarantee victory. Keep your hands inside the ride at all times.

Comments

[dryfoo.livejournal.com]

Credit is today's money exchanged for future money. Future money exists because of the belief that it will exist. The financial writers call this "market confidence". If people no longer believe in the guarantees that support future money, then future money simply disappears, like the protagonist in a time-travel paradox. Without market confidence, there is no credit.

Money is not a substance. Money is not a barter good. Money isn't even gold anymore. Money seems like particles that have no rest-mass. They only get mass from the energy of their motion.

> anyone who's a low risk should still be able to get capital

From who? Via what financial machinery? Short-term credit vibrating back and forth between banks is the current of the financial markets. And even if your hypothetical Mr. Low-risk got his loan, what would he do with it? Invest in building up his company to create what? For what customers?

No. Money really can just disappear. Sometimes it's a wonder that it's there at all. (Having just compared money to Marty McFly, photons, and AC current, I'm going to stop now, before invoke a metaphor of virtual particles. Ooops, too late.)

[meiczyslaw.livejournal.com]

My problem is that I don't see it that way. If the big investment firms are overcommitted, that means that there's an opening for new players in that market. If you've got money to lend, now's the time for you to get involved.

(And speaking of loans -- did you notice that no-loans-ever-Microsoft took out a $40 billion loan the other day to buy back some of its stock?)

[jducoeur]

If you've got money to lend, now's the time for you to get involved.

True in theory -- problem is, most of the people with money to put into that have been taking a bath in the crisis. Remember that a huge fraction of that money is already *in* the market, and has been sinking recently: that's driving most people *away* from the market, into safer havens.

It's true that some smart people are going to time the market right, buy while things are low, and make a *serious* killing. But market timing is always risky, so some will probably lose their shirts in the process. We've already seen some of that: some folks invested in the investment banks only a few weeks ago, to capture what looked like a good opportunity, and lost everything.

Really, it's nothing new -- high risk gets high reward. Uncertainty is making things risky right now; some people will reap those rewards.

did you notice that no-loans-ever-Microsoft took out a $40 billion loan the other day to buy back some of its stock?

I hadn't, but that's not surprising. The reality is that Microsoft is the bluest-chip stock there is nowadays: despite Google and Apple, they're still a very reliable money-spinner. But they're one of the more extreme cases of looking "safe" in dangerous times...

[meiczyslaw.livejournal.com]

[...] some people will reap those rewards.

For examples, see JPMorgan and Warren Buffet.

I think the bottom line is that we're talking about $700 billion -- which is one of the estimates of the cost of the Iraq War.