Okay, the seas are not as mind-bogglingly big as space...

[jducoeur]

... but still, how *do* you manage to get two nuclear submarines to collide with one another by accident? I mean, seriously, that's two needles wandering around in a haystack and managing to run into each other. Given the three-dimensional nature of the environment, it's pretty remarkable...

Comments

[mr-teem.livejournal.com]

Wow. But, then, I thought that two satellites colliding (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/science/space/12satellite.html?hp) was pretty improbable.

[jducoeur]

Good point -- it's been quite a week for surprising collisions...

[herooftheage.livejournal.com]

Given that it isn't all that uncommon an occurrence, I suspect what is really going on is that they were playing chicken, and neither veered off. My loose understanding is that though not a common practice, it isn't unheard of either.

[liamstliam.livejournal.com]

That was my immediate thought.

I have convered a Naval Base -- a sub base actually -- and, yeah, this was not random.

[laurion]

My dad taught communications on the sub base (although he was always a floater himself), so I can pretty much guarantee this was no random accident... Unintentional, perhaps, but far from surprising.

[jducoeur]

Could be. Officially, everybody's denying that they detected each other, and claiming that the accident happened because both were on deep patrol and near-silent running. But I suspect it'll be a while (if ever) before the real details become public...

[hfcougar.livejournal.com]

Hmm. I actually know someone who would know, and almost certainly can't talk about it. So now I'm dying to ask.

[umbran.livejournal.com]

My guess: They were likely on maneuvers, training, hunting each other.

They probably work from the same sets of maps (being allies, and all), and have similar training. That means they try to hide (and seek) in similar places.

It is odd if you expect them to be randomly spread across the ocean. But that probably wasn't the case...

[laurion]

I would argue that random distribution is the least effective use of submarines. Given the human element, even if they tried to be pseudo random they'd fail.

[umbran.livejournal.com]

That would depend on the type of submarine. For attack subs, certainly, random distribution would be a sub-optimal strategy (or tactic - it holds on both scales).

For missile subs, though, random distribution is probably a good idea. They want to remain unfound - predictable distribution works against that primary goal.

[laurion]

But in the process of attempting to remain unfound they develop subtle patterns. Further, because of the needs of crew, submarine, missiles, etc, they have some strong limitations as well. So there are really three options when it comes to missile subs: 1) stay at home in port where you are well protected and it doesn't matter if people know where you are, deploying when it looks like missiles might be a useful thing to have ready, 2) find a nook or cranny to hind in that meets the needs of a long-term mission (generally they need to surface now and again to communicate, take on fresh air, or to actually launch missiles), and hope it's a good nook, or 3) move around the oceans in somewhat erratic and unpredictable patterns, keeping to the hidden corners along the way.

So I agree that predictable distribution works against the goal, but there are certain predictable circumstances that reduce the working set. For instance, it is less likely than true random would predict that two missile subs are within (n) leagues of each other. After all, why increase the chance of losing the secrecy of two subs at the same time, especially when there is no real tactical advantage to having two subs able to launch from the same place. Likewise, you are unlikely to put your subs in well-trafficked waters, or even within a certain proximity of various features (although props to the Germans for getting U-Boats right into Long Island Sound).

Smart analysis can reduce the set of 'random' down far enough that even for something like missile subs, you have some pretty good ideas as to where to look.

[jducoeur]

My guess: They were likely on maneuvers, training, hunting each other.

Official claims are quite the contrary -- that they collided because they weren't even in the same computer systems, so they totally didn't know about each other. (Apparently France doesn't share with the rest of NATO, and this is a sore spot.)

Unofficially? We'll see. But as you point out, these were missile subs, not hunters, so this sort of hunting seems a bit outside their usual remit...